Cruise and Ferry Market Outlook – webinar summary
On 6 November, GCE Blue Maritime Cluster and its Norwegian Cruise and Ferry Group summed up the cruise and ferry year 2026 in a short webinar. The program covered the status of the national cruise and ferry initiative, status in the ferry markets and the outlook for cruise by Monty Mathisen, Managing Editor of Cruise Industry News.
The cruise and ferry initiative and the cluster
Cruise and ferry accounted for 12% of the revenues of companies in the cluster last year, and in 2027 the work continues through Norwegian Cruise and Ferry Group. The export initiative started in 2025 and was put on hold in early 2026. Activity has nevertheless continued with market intelligence through the cluster's orderbook and reports from Cruise Industry News, a trade mission to Germany, market experts working directly for member companies, and a network of Norwegian suppliers.
The cruise and ferry segment grew strongly during the expedition cruise boom up to 2019. Newbuilding has slowed since, but many suppliers capitalised on the boom, and equipment suppliers now drive the growth in the cluster again.
A quieter year for the ferry market, but an ageing fleet must be renewed
After many contracts in 2025, ro-pax ordering has declined through 2026. Clarksons has estimated around 15 large ro-pax ships per year over 2027–2030, and this year is below that level. Last year's large orders, notably from Finnlines and Grimaldi, have nevertheless brought the ro-pax orderbook back to pre-COVID levels.
A steady flow of contracts is expected. Around 350 ro-pax vessels in operation were built before 1990, and EU ETS, other national regulations and expensive fuel will force many of them to be replaced.
The Mediterranean has had the strongest year, with sharp growth in freight between Africa and Europe. In the Baltic, passenger numbers remain below pre-COVID levels, largely because of the conflict in the region. Car carrier ordering has picked up strongly, driven by Chinese car exports and easing uncertainty around US port fees.
China builds almost all new large ro-pax tonnage, while Europe and Australia remain strong in fast craft and smaller ferries. Of around 380 ferries contracted over the past three years, half are electric or hybrid.
Cruiselines are investing beyond the ship
Cruise lines are earning well and spending the money on more than new ships. In his presentation, Monty Mathisen of Cruise Industry News described how private islands, beach clubs and terminals have become cash-generating assets that keep passenger spending within the company. Some examples are
Carnival’s Celebration Key in the Bahamas thatwelcomed 2.4 million guests in its first year, and around 3.5 million are expected in 2027 as Princess, AIDA and Costa also begin calling.MSC’s Ocean Cay is in operation, the neighbouring island Sandy Cay opens in 2028, and USD 450 million is planned for a new terminal and beach club in Freeport.
The logic behind this is simple. Free beaches and pools are combined with paid attractions, cabanas and villas, and shorter Caribbean cruises become more profitable while fuel consumption falls. The cruise lines wants to control the entire guest experience. Investment is going into new terminals as well, including in Miami and Galveston.
On the cost side, higher fuel prices are driving efficiency work. NCLH is targeting savings on the order of USD 100 million through automation, smarter purchasing and better supply chain management. Revenue per guest keeps rising through pricing, paid offerings on board and ashore, and conversions that add revenue-generating spaces to older ships.
The Cruise orderbook, the shipyards and new players
As of April 2026 the cruise orderbook held 79 ships, almost 205,000 berths and around USD 80 billion in investment, with deliveries through 2037. The average newbuild costs about USD 1 billion.
Shipyard capacity sets the limit for growth. Large cruise ships are in practice built by three groups: Fincantieri, Meyer (Papenburg and Turku) and Chantiers de l'Atlantique. Their slots are largely taken by Carnival, Royal Caribbean, NCLH, MSC and Disney, which makes it hard for new players to get large ships built. Chinese yards have potential, but building cruise expertise takes time, and Mathisen recalled that several yards outside the big three have gone bankrupt on cruise projects in the past. So far, they mostly seem to be signing Letter of Intents, but it will be interesting to see if they will be able to break through in the years to come.
The second-hand market is active, as older tonnage is sold or chartered to new and regional cruise lines. Growth is also coming from new segments. Luxury hotel brands such as Ritz-Carlton, Four Seasons, Orient Express and Aman are entering cruise, attracting many guests who are new to cruising. Other hotel brands are expected to follow. River cruising in Europe has taken off I 2026, with Viking as the largest player and Royal Caribbean entering through for instance Celebrity River Cruises. Expedition cruising is still growing, but demand for new ships is lower than during the boom up to 2019. However, it is expected that new vessels again have to come into the marked by the end of the century
Opportunities and challenges for suppliers
For Norwegian suppliers the potential is broad, but the market is more demanding than a couple of years ago as the slots in the mains yards are really far ahead.
Anyhow, the most obvious opportunity is newbuilding. The orderbook holds around 80 ships through 2037, and new players are adding luxury, river and expedition ships on top of that. Just as important is the existing fleet. Cruise lines are converting older ships with more cabins, suites, restaurants and activity areas to raise revenue, which creates work for yards and equipment suppliers beyond the newbuilding market. Planned drydockings up to 2028 are mapped in the Cruise Industry News report that members can find in the Blue Maritime Knowledgebase.
The expedition market is likely to return towards the end of the decade, when many of the older ships built prior to the boom up to 2019 will need to be replaced. How strong that comeback will be depends partly on geopolitics and whether markets that have closed open up again. When the war in Ukraine broke out, for example, there were 13 luxury ships operating in the Black Sea.
The war in Ukraine has closed St. Petersburg and weakened the Baltic, while unrest in the Middle East and the Red Sea forces repositioning voyages around Africa instead of through the Suez Canal. This is not something the Cruiselines seems to do, and are rather replacing their ships in new destinations. Higher fuel prices squeeze margins but also increase demand for energy efficiency. American guests are important for the European season and sensitive to exchange rates, politics and security, and the many new ships in the Caribbean create a risk of overcapacity and price pressure. In the longer term, the industry's main challenge is to attract new first-time cruisers and bring them back.
Mathisen's conclusion was nevertheless positive: the major cruise lines will perform well despite challenging conditions as their revenue onboard and at their locations with growing revenues and continued investment both at sea and on shore.
We keep up the Cruise and Ferry work in 2027. As well as organizing events, we will also continoue to issue the Cruise and Ferry Group Newsletter. Sign up here: LINK
Reports and market intelligense.
As part of the cluster and the cruise and ferry Newsletter, you also have access to some of the most relevant reports from Cruise Industry News in our Knowledgebase.
